Historical statistics analysis tells us that China's number of gold medals will increase considerably as compared to the last time, i.e. 32 gold medals. China is predicted to win 40 gold medals at 29th Beijing Olympics.
I have done a search on the question,i.e. which country will get the most gold medals. The answer is normally still the USA, for example, timesonline.com.uk; some think China has a good chance as it has generally done very well and has improved a lot in some items over the last four years.
However, I will give a very definite answer: China will get the most gold medals or even the most medals in 2008 Olympics. The reason is based on historical statistics by comparing a hosting country's performance with that of its previous performance. The result shows that the host country's performance is considerably much better. The less the host country team got in the previous games, the more it gets as a the host. It has become an established rule.
The historical statistics are as follows:
23th Olympics, host USA 83 gold medals, previous 34 gold medals, increase by 144%;
24th Olympics, host S.Korea 12 gold medals, previous 6 gold medals, increase by 100%;
25th Olympics, host Spain, 13 gold medals, previous 1 gold medals, increase by 1200%;
26th Olympics, host USA, 44 gold medals, previous 37 gold medals, increase by 19%;
27th Olympics, host Australia 16 gold medals, previous 9 gold medals, increase by 78%;
28th Olympics, host Greece, 6 gold medals, previous 4 gold medals, increase by 50%;
29th Olympics, host China, ? gold medals, previous 32 gold medals, increase by ?.
(source: people.com.cn,bbs forum)
Based on the above comparative analysis, one can safely predict that China will be the first in number of gold medals in 2008 29th Beijing Olympics. China will win about 40 gold medals or even more.
Caution: Please do not use the above information to bet.