On 25 April, Beijing announced that it was ready to have contacts and consultations with the private representative of Dalai Lama in the coming days. Western capitals have immediately welcomed the decision.
However, Dalai Lama has to pass a test designed by Beijing in order to move from the seemingly endless contacts to official talks or negotiation to eventually resolve the Tibet issue.
What are the prospects of the new dialogue?
Commentators have paid attention to the fact that Beijing did not give details of the modalities of new contacts. They have also observed the continued verbal criticisms of Chinese media against the "Dalai Lama clique" interpreted as Chinese tactics either to level ground for real talks or to soften negotiation position of Dalai Lama if there were to be an official negotiation. For Beijing, it is only contact or consultation, not official talks or negotiation because Dalai Lama has to act to demonstrate his sincerity: declare that Tibet is integral part of China, Taiwan is integral part of China; stop instigating violence; stop sabotaging Beijing Olympic Games. The three conditions will help to pave the way for formal talks or negotiation.
That is to say, Dalai Lama has appealed to Western capitals that he is pursuing a middle way, he is not seeking independence. "The whole world knows that Dalai Lama is not seeking independence but real autonomy for Tibet". However, Beijing has to draw a conclusion whether Dalai Lama has really changed heart or playing tactics. Chinese leaders are making their own judgment by not only listening to what he says, but also watching what he does.
The real problem for Beijing is the lack of trust for Dalai Lama's words. In the past few years, Dalai Lama has been highly successful in his diplomacy to move western public opinion in his favor. Politically, he has sold his case to western governments and the public as real believer in dialogue, not violence to solve the Tibet issue,Dalai Lama as a solution to help preserve Tibetan boudhist religion and Tibetan culture, a pragmatist in pursuing real autonomy in Tibet within the framework of PRC constitution, not a seeker for Tibetan independence. The huge support for his cause from western politicians and public opinion has been made increasingly evident following the recent incident in Tibet and surrounding regions populated by Tibetans.
However, this can prove to be a double edged sword. On the one hand, the Dalai Lama now enjoys a higher international profile and has managed to be widely heard and appreciated, even adored by many. On the other hand, his real objective to return to Tibet and govern it can become even more distant than before. He has succeeded in pursuading western capitals to exert pressure on Beijing to talk to him. However, such pressure can be counter productive if Beijing interprete this as an effort to internationalize the Tibet issue, or close ties between Dalai Lama with Western capitals can be seen as a proof that he has been plotting something new for Tibet independence. His declaration for real autonomy is interpreted by Beijing as false autonomy but real independence. Due to historical experiences, Beijing is particularly sensitive to sovereignty issues. Tibet is clearly one of these sovereignty issues. Therefore, Beijing will reject anything perceived to be an external interference in its internal affairs. Measures such as US parliament resolution on Tibet, EU parliament resolution on Tibet, Paris Council decision to grant Dalai Lama as the city's honorary citizen can only make Beijing angry.
Unless Dalai Lama sells his case to Beijing, chances for him to succeed in establishing a real autonomy in his terms are rather slim and distant. One can not sell something to a difficult client by making him angry. Negotiation is based on the willingness of participating parties to reach an executable agreement through compromises. Without sufficient mutual trust as a basis, formal negotiation will not even be initiated. For example, Beijing has not recognized the past dialogue as talks, only as contacts.
Beijing's test for Dalai Lama
In the last month or so, Dalai Lama has successfully kicked the ball to Beijing. The latter has handled the ball clumsily to the point that Beijing's policies in Tibet have not been appreciated as it wishes. However, Chinese public opinion has been quickly mobilized to solidify Chinese official position. Chinese cheer teams composed of young Chinese students world wide are enthusiatically supporting their government. One can not say such activities are manipulated by Chinese government.This has happened as the public see the Olympic Games as a proof of modernization of Chinese nation and thus a pride of Chinese people. The linkage of human rights or a hint to boycott the opening ceremony of the Games in its name has aroused Chinese public anger, especially among the young who see this as a deliberate attempt to humiliate the nation using human rights as an excuse.
Following the March 14 incident, Western capitals have all called or urged Beijing to have dialogue with Dalai Lama to resolve the Tibet issue. The German chancellor has refused to attend the opening ceremony as a protest to Beijing's handling of the incident while the French president has linked his presence to Beijing's willingness to carry out dialogue with Dalai Lama.
By agreeing to reopen dialogue or have new contacts with the private representatives of Dalai Lama is no surprise because this is nothing new. Beijing's decision itself indicates its understanding of the major role of Dalai Lama in helping to maintain political stability in China's western region, particularly Tibet. It defuses the international pressure due to the Tibet issue, apparently the only most outstanding issue 100 days before the event of Olympic Games.
Beijing has agreed to take up dialogue with the Dalai Lama without conditions. However, such a dialogue has only been described by Beijing as another contact, not formal talks or negotiation. Beijing has clearly laid out three conditions as listed in the beginning of this article to be available in order to agree to have official talks or negotiations to settle the Tibet issue with Dalai Lama.
First, the Tibetan religious leader has openly stated many times that he is not seeking independence, but real autonomy in Tibet. In public eyes, he has met the first condition. However, Beijing expects him to repeat the following: Tibet is an integral part of China, Taiwan is an integral part of China. This is important bacause this will be put on official record to hold him accountable in the future.
Second, he has openly called Tibetans to stop violence. He has been preaching peace and dialogue for decades, which was a major reason for him to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The recent savage violence committed by some Tibetan protestors in Lhasa and elsewhere are not supporting Dalai Lama's own words. Then it is up to Beijing to assess how much influence Dalai Lama still has upon his followers. After all, he is still head of the Tibetan exile government, even though unrecognized. He stated that he could not hold Tibetan radical groups from committing violence. Is this true? Tibetan Youth Congress, the organization which has been accused by Beijing as the leading entity masterminding the recent and past violences but formally described by Dalai Lama as a Tibetan exile NGO, has been reportedly become a backbone of the Tibetan exile government. Or is this only a tactic that he is preaching dialogue with Beijing while his hardline followers pursue violence to create pressure on Beijing in order to have more leverage in future negotiations.
Based on the above analysis, Beijing would be willing to engage in formal talks or negotiation with Dalai Lama when it concludes that he is sincere in his statement that he is not able to prevent his followers from radical actions. It would be naive to believe that he is able to prevent all types of violence by all Tibetans. However, Beijing expects him to act more in a credible manner in preventing violence by his followers, to demonstrate his leadership among his believers.
Thirdly, Dalai Lama has stated that he supports Beijing Olympics and publicly opposes boycott. Since Beijing Olympic Game is seen as a supreme important event for the Chinese nation, real efforts by Dalai Lama in the next few months leading up to the Games to use his influence to prevent or dramatically reduce protests by Tibetan groups will be registered in his credit. Beijing will lose credibility in public opinion if it refuses to change contact into what it calls negotiation with him.
After his Chinese host told him of its willingness to reopen contacts with Dalai Lama, José Manuel Barroso, President of EU Commission, has been lately reported to state that Dalai Lama has stated he was not seeking independence but only real autonomy and preserving Tibetan religious and cultural heritage. Then there is a real hope for the Tibetan issue to be resolved through dialogues.
However, we can conclude from the above that real hope will only be possible if Dalai Lama passes the test from Beijing. Least of all, he has to demonstrate his willingness to become a qualified citizen of PRC besides beijing a Tibetan religious leader.