Is it Ukraine or Moldova as the French foreign minister Kouchner suggested? But Mr. Kouchner has been immediately critisized as having "a sick imagination". I do not agree with the French foreign minister and believe his suggestion only reminds me that the EU will take advantage of the Russian operation as a pretext to advance its presence in Ukraine and Moldova and strengthen its ties with these two countries. Instead, I believe Poland will face a real Russian military attack.

Due to historical reasons, Poland has been very active in criticizing Russian military interventions in Georgia. Shortly after the commencement of the military conflict between Russia and Georgia, Poland has signed the agreement with the US on the construction of missile defense installations on Polish soil. Russia has been strongly opposed to such installations for years. The US has repeatedly reiterated that the missile defense installations are targeted at the rogue states, e.g. Iran, not at Russia. However, the Russians do not believe the American explanations. To them, such installations are a direct security security to Russia. Earlier this week, Russian president Medvedev has been reportedly to express a threat that Russia will use military means to eliminate such installations.

Viewed from the active critical Polish diplomatic stance towards Russia and the Russian political statement on the missile defense installations to be constructed on Polish soil, I believe the Russian military will not hesitate to execute an operation aiming to destroy such installations. If that happens, and I believe it will happen one day, Europe would face a far more dangerous crisis as, unlike Georgia, Poland is a NATO member. In that scenario, NATO would face for the first time the hard choice whether to collectively declare war against Russia since the Organisation is obliged to defend a member if it is attacked. If it does, then we would face a danger of another world war, again originating in Europe like the previous two world wars. Technically, how will NATO interprete a potential Russian military operation against such installations? Does NATO define it only as an military asset based on a bilateral agreement between Poland and US, thus not involving other European states, thus avoiding a trigger for a large scale war?

These are very hard questions. However, viewed from the circumstances, it is a real security problem for Europe and one begging attention from all Europeans.

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On 26th August 2008, Chinese People's Congress, the Parliament, has adopted draft revisions of "Criminal Law" to regulate the handling of citizens' personal data.

In China, a mother who has given birth to a child is often chased by a telephone call for sales of baby milk powder immediately after leaving the hospital and going back home. Buyers of mobile phones are chased for all sorts of sales promotions immediately after the purchase of the phone. Citizens complain about such harassments and are feeling strong about illegal disclosure of their personal data.

Furthermore, there have been cases of illegal disclosure of personal data by public institutions which have come to possessions of such data in exercise of their public functions. This poses as a grave threat to the citizen's personal physical safety, security of their property.

The revised Criminal Law (7th Revision) provides that public officials and staff of state authorities or financial, telecommunications, education, transport, medical institutions who obtain citizens' personal data and then sell such data or illegally provides such data to others, or steal such data or obtain such data in other illegal manners will be liable to criminal offence and can be sentenced up to three years in prison or compulsed for community labour.

Internet violence such as the popular "human flesh search" is much more serious than a simple illegal disclosure of personal data. The practice has gone far beyond a simple moral condemnation and seriously inflict on citizen's basic legal rights. It is a violation of a citizen's human rights.

According to deputy Zhu Zhigang, the internet has developed so fast that one can not wait for a separate law on personal information and data protection. It would be too late and offences of personal integrity and basic human rights would be too rampant if the country does not act immediately. Therefore, China's legislature has decided to take advantage of the criminal law revision to tighten up the loopholes of internet as a potential area of human rights violations.

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In order to answer the question, it is relevant to understand that Russia took advantage of the moral highground offered to it by Georgia's offensive against South Ossetia in its information campaign in the beginning of this military conflict. It was enough as Russia need only a few days to cripple Georgian forces and eliminate the Georgian core military infrastructure. They had already accomplished their tasks before writers and bloggers even found out the whereabouts of the two separatist provinces of Georgia during a holiday month.

1. Small states are only good stakes for big powers to be traded with other interests

Some writer focused their attention to the geostrategic position of Georgia in transporting Caspian energy. The energy route is the only alternative to Russia energy supply to EU nations. Economically, Georgia is highly dependent on Russia. Georgian politicians led by the US bred leader Saakshvilli are more than conscious of their economic dependence. They should be also conscious about that their offensive against South Ossetia would be considered as grave provocations against Russia as 90% of South Ossetians hold Russian passports, and therefore they should be politically conscious of the political consequences. However, they took the great risk as they strongly believe they have built a political alliance with the sole superpower the USA. They took the adventure by ignoring the high danger to their national security based on their conviction that their action would be supported by the USA and NATO members. However, this core assumption has proved to be false and cost Georgia very dearly.

People from small states can hardly understand the mentalities of big powers. In reality, political alliances can be very weak in real situations of conflict especially when a small state ally is perceived to unnecessarily provoke the adversary, in this case, Georgia took the offensive against South Ossetia thus provoked Russia. The USA would only watch its pitiful ally to be sacrificed. USA and EU were only in a position to release declarations. This is hardly undertandable to many people as it has often been taken for granted that only USA and NATO are legitimate users of military force in today human civilisation. The West represents the "international community". But in real politics, this is only bullshit. In the competition among big powers,small states only serve as stakes to be traded with other interests. Georgia is so far away from the USA and EU. As a neighbor to Russia's south border, it is like North Korea to China. If Georgia joins NATO, it is considered by Russians as a real strategic threat to Russia and therefore Russians are more than willing to fight militarily to defend itself. However, to the Europeans and Americans, the loss of Georgia is at the best loss of secondary interests, no high strategic importance. It is not necessary to risk American and European soldiers' lives to defend Georgia. That is why President Bush continued to watch Olympic Games after the emergence of the crisis.

To Georgians, their national interests can be best served by being neutral, not by joining any alliance either with Russia nor with NATO. Economically, it makes great sense too.

2. The West should stop judging Russia from its own value systems
EU is heavily dependant on Russia for its energy supplies. However, Russia has become a frequent target for accusations of a political nature in Western capitals. One can frequently read articles or speeches of politicians accusing Russia of scaling back in its democracy. However, life under Yeltsin, something the West would describe as progressive and democratic was in reality a nightmare for the Russian people. The Russians lost their national pride and identity. Life span declined dramatically. When President Putin took over Russian presidency, Russia was in ruins. Russian economy was highly dependent on Western debt. Western politicians were real masters, not Russians themselves. Russia’s political and economic fortune improved dramatically under the reign of President Putin to the extent that Russians can dream again of recovering their pride as a nation. They have been crying to be respected as a big power. However, the West has refused to listen and respect the reality that Russia is a great power on its own. Russians have to be consulted on issues concerning their core national interests.

The West is too arrogant to understand the feelings of other big powers. Instead, it is too complacent to believe everything the West does is right, everything the West believes is universal value. This is bullshit. In the world there are different civilizations, Western civilization is just one of the great civilizations. There are also other great civilizations including the Chinese and Russian civilizations distinct from the West. At the same time, different civilizations have been mutually enriching through contacts, exchanges and sometimes wars and military conflicts.

Many Russians perceive themselves as Westerners. They are pro-West. However, there are increasingly so many Russians with the political ambitions who detest the West for being aggressive against Russia. In light of the numerous strategic fault-lines in Western Eurasia and Balkans, Russia’s political will to recover its traditional influence can easily clash with the West and cause strategic tension. The Europeans have wrongly assumed that the liberal democracy has won the final battle with the fall of the Berlin wall. They are very ill prepared for the re-emergence of Russia military might to be exercised again in Europe.
Therefore, the Europeans in western Europe, esp. the EU politicians and strategists would have endless nightmares if they are not prepared to live peacefully with the Russians.
In today’s world, humanity faces too many common security threats such as transnational crimes, climate change, global terrorism etc., tension between the West and Russia is very bad news for concerted efforts to face up to the common security threats of humanity. In the long term, West’s failure to respect other big powers such as Russia and China can be devastating to everybody.

3. Has Russia won a victory?

I have read comments that it is hard to say whether Russia has won a victory in its military intervention in neighboring Georgia. It depends how one defines victory and the criteria one uses to define it, in what respects one is talking about. In military terms, Russia has won a clear victory against Georgia. It has been able to force Georgian troupes out of South Ossetia and eliminated core Georgian military infrastructure. Russia forced Georgia to sign the ceasefire agreement under auspices of EU presided by Nicolas Sarkozy and OSCE. The Russia public should feel great national pride in such a victory which is perceived as a revenge of the humiliation Russia suffered in the NATO expansion into former Russian spheres of influence, the bombing of former Yugoslavia, independence of Kosovo, etc. NATO’s bombing of Russia ally Yugoslavia and West’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia outside of international law has been felt by Russians as non-respect of their national interests. Their voices have been ignored. The West has done this in order to avoid mandate from UN Security Council, thus undermining the legal rights of Russia and China enshrined by the UN Charter. As long as the numerical advantage enjoyed by Western nations allows it, and as long as the Western media enjoys the supremacy in voice hegemony, the non-observance of international law of NATO and EU can always be argued to be legitimate by the West.
China has learned the lesson by keeping neutral in the Kosovo independence case even though it has been consistently arguing for the respect of state territorial integrity and sovereignty as Kosovo is mainly a European issue. China was too noisy in its propaganda during the NATO military intervention against former Yugoslavia, resulting in the bombing of its embassy by mistake. Of course, the incident was perceived as just a deliberate action to ask the country to keep its mouth shut. China’s unwise noise was more ideological in nature. It did not have much real-political interests in the Balkans. However, the Russians have key real political interests in competition with the West. The dismembering of Yugoslavia and then Serbia, Russian allies, has been rather painful and humiliating to the Russians.
Since the South Osseitia and Abkhazia are similar cases to Kosovo, the Russian military intervention in Georgia is of course seen by Russians as a victory and humiliation vindicated.

The Western powers quickly came to their senses and began to act after the signing of cease fire agreement 12th August. The strategy of US and EU was to prevent the Russians from achieving their strategic objectives and confining the Russian victory to be only tactical. The strategic success would mean the overthrowing of democratically elected Saakashvilli presidency and definitive prevention of Georgia from joining NATO. Therefore, the US and EU political message has been that if the Russians remove Saakshvilli from power, Russia’s international standing would be in danger. Russia would be internationally isolated if it does not honor its ceasefire obligations. German chancellor Angela Merkel, who opposed the Georgian candidature for NATO last April, changed her position on the issue and officially expressed to support Georgian NATO candidature.

Of course, it is still premature to judge whether Georgia would be admitted as NATO member at this stage. If this is the result, one would be forced to reflect the logic of this event. We know US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice paid a visit to Georgia shortly before the Georgian military offensive into South Ossetia. One can logically suspect that Georgian action has got a green light from the US and has been masterminded by the US. The logical strategic calculations could be follows: a lightning Georgian military offence into South Ossetia on August 8 when Russian Prime Minister Putin was in Beijing to attend the Opening Ceremony of Olympic Games, if successful, would very quickly enable the well trained and equipped Georgian military to seize the tunnel linking the two Ossetias and blocking the Russian troupes from intervention. This would establish a fact of takeover of the separatist territory on the ground. Diplomatic support from the West would help Georgia to justify the action internationally as legitimate. Nobody would be naïve to predict that the Russians would not act and intervene militarily as the offensive is a gross provocation to the Russian authority. As the event evolved, the Russian military intervention seems to be prepare and almost immediate. The punishing blow against Georgia put Georgia in the beginning in a awkward position. The disproportionate reaction from Russia galvanized Georgian public to be even more pro-NATO and the West. The US strategic planners have now a much stronger case to admit Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, further encircling the Russian bear inside its cage.

If this interpretation is reasonable, the Georgian military adventure is something like a willing self-sacrifice for a much bigger and desirable strategic purpose. It serves the interests of USA, not Georgia of course.

3. The conflict is a strategy to plant suspicions between Europeans in EU and Russians

Imagine a much closer strategic relationship between the EU and Russia. Would that do any good the long term strategic interests of the only superpower in the world? I don’t believe so. A united EU and Russia would challenge the superpower and eventually drive the USA out of Europe. Therefore, Russia has been increasingly depicted as a threat to democracy and the free world. The emerging Russia power is depicted as a hard competitor for influence in European and world affairs. Russia’s military intervention would be very instrumental to remind the Europeans to be more publicly willing to make more contributions to support the USA military adventures around the world.

Europeans have been increasingly more civilized since the fall of the former Soviet Union. They are more interested in international rule making than supporting the USA in its long war against terror. They are mega-sexual post modern stateless entities believing in human rights and freedoms based on voluntarism not at the point of guns, the American way. Iraq is the perfect manifestation of the European mentality. The Europeans behave in this way as they no longer see the existence of a real enemy. Europe needs a convincing enemy. A weakened Russia is such a perfect enemy in the making. The best scenario for the USA would be Russia willing to cooperate in major international affairs such as the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes, climate change, and at the same time, a Russia perceived as a major security threat to EU and NATO so that the Europeans are willing to make more sacrifices to join the US efforts in the long war against terror.

Economically speaking, the Russian economy has become much more integrated with the European economy since the fall of former Soviet Union. Whatever happens, it is impossible to imagine that Russia is interested in a clash with the West. What it really wants is reasonable respect of its national strategic interests, esp. in its near abroad.

As there are quite a number of fault lines in Western Eurasia sub-region, a mutually suspicious relationship between Russia, NATO and EU and geopolitical competition for influence in the sub-region and potential clashes and tensions would evolve into endless nightmare for the Europeans. That would practically mean a perpetual inability for the European to challenge the hegemonic position of the USA.

On the hand, a more defiant Russia would lead to a closer transatlantic strategic relationship and help forge the West as a more maneuverable body to counter the rising power in East Asia, notably China. Germany and France, which had pretty sound relations with China under Schoder and Chirac, are now increasingly animalistic towards China under Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Therefore, the USA is now trying to split the world up into two distinct camps, the camp of autocracies with Russia and China at the core, and the camp of liberal democracies or the Western camp led by the USA. A new type of cold war is now in the making.

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Russian army launched a punishing attack against Georgia and destroyed the core military infrastructure built over the years with US military assistance. Moreover, the Georgian President was forced to sign the truce agreement last week which forbids Georgia to resort to the use of force against its two separatist provinces. Under such circumstances, one can not expect the two provinces to be ever ruled again by Georgian central government. Georgia has effectively lost these two provinces forever as a result of violation of Beijing Olympics truce call.

Upon a glimpse of history, one finds that Stalin, who mother was a South Ossetian, deliberately split Ossetia into two parts, North Ossetia controled by Russia, and South Ossetia ruled by Georgia, as a divide and rule strategy in order to bring the unruly Georgians into submission.

Therefore, Russia will not recognize independence of the two separatist Georgian provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the near future. But instead, Russia will continue to support the two provinces militarily and politically. Their economies will be integrated. In name, they will still be regarded as Georgian territory while in practice they are administered by Russia. In this way, the Russians will continue to be able to use the territories as a leverage in the internal affairs of Georgia.

In this sense, Russia uses South Ossetia as a Damoscles sword above the head of Georgians.

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It has been discovered that the BBC has used the same old picture for at least six times to support its accusation of Chinese authorities, 26 August 2000, 20 July 2001, 23 September 2002, 23 July 2006, 25 October 2006, and then 29 July 2008. At the same time when this has become the topic, the Western media was spreading another news that the Chinese authorities has been blocking Chinese citizens from viewing the BBC Chinese website. If it was blocked, how could Chinese internet users found the BBC malpractice.

What is more shocking is the fact that during the last 8 years, the uniforms of Chinese officers have long been changed. The laziness of BBC journalists and effortless attacks of Chinese backwardness have made themselves notorious to Chinese readers. As a result, the public credibility of BBC in China is seriously under threat.

Another recent example is the fabrication of Western media that Chinese police were beating Tibetan peaceful demonstrators by using pictues or videos mixing scenes of Indian or Nepalese police violance with Tibetan demonstrations as evidence. In reality, the innocent Han or Musulmane Chinese were the victims under violent attacks from Tibetan violent mobs. Later on, some news articles published by the same media have put one sentence in bracket: Chinese authorities have banned western journalists from Tibet. But whatever happens, a media has no right to fabricate news to talk about something it does not know.

When the media habitually fabricates news, how can you ever believe their news reports. One has to ask how much is true, how much the Western media use pictures or video tapes from their archives to fabricate a new event?

No doubt BBC has become even more notorious in China.

Source: wqllxl, Tiexue.net, 1 Aug. 2008, "BBC在8年中先后6次使用的一张“中国邪恶”照片！”（BBC has used a "evil China" picture six times in eight years）.

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For the first time in Chinese history, several tens of thousand of civilian and military hospitals have received an operational manual for treatment of injuries from chemical and biological weapons last Sunday.

Air control has been tightened for the anti-terrorist purpose.

Last week, there was report from a US website dedicated to terrorism that a Xinjiang separatist and terrorist organization has claimed responsibilities for several deadly accidents in China's Yunnan province and elsewhere. Undoubtedly, terrorist threats are real to this country in this globalized world.

It has also been reported that the US government has sent security officers to collaborate with their Chinese counterparts in anti-terrorist actions. Security equipments which have been banned to be sold to China have been delivered too.

While nobody believes such an attack by chemical and biological weapons will even take place during the Beijing Olympics, China has learned the lesson from world wide terrorist attacks esp. those launched against the USA following the Sep. 11 2001 to prepare for the worst only to ensure absolute safety on this occasion.

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To the politicians in Chinese Taiwan, "zhongguo taipei" (中国台北，Chinese taipei)is unacceptable, it should be called "zhonghua taipei" （中华台北）. After some thoughts, the Chinese government and people really do not see the difference and therefore have agreed to make a concesion to the politicians of Chinese Taiwan.

This is another example to show the importance of face saving in Chinese culture.

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Most of the PLA soldiers are virgin boys who have never seen girls naked. On the other hand, a potential Western army increasingly consists of liberal minded female soliders who are willing to do everything. Just imagine the enemy use these sex bombs to launch an attack with nearly naked bodies. The Chinese soldiers would be rendered defenseless and be taken prisoners without a fight.

Long live world peace. Say "no" to war, say "yes" to "more sex".

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I have done a search on the question,i.e. which country will get the most gold medals. The answer is normally still the USA, for example, timesonline.com.uk; some think China has a good chance as it has generally done very well and has improved a lot in some items over the last four years.

However, I will give a very definite answer: China will get the most gold medals or even the most medals in 2008 Olympics. The reason is based on historical statistics by comparing a hosting country's performance with that of its previous performance. The result shows that the host country's performance is considerably much better. The less the host country team got in the previous games, the more it gets as a the host. It has become an established rule.

The historical statistics are as follows:

23th Olympics, host USA 83 gold medals, previous 34 gold medals, increase by 144%;
24th Olympics, host S.Korea 12 gold medals, previous 6 gold medals, increase by 100%;
25th Olympics, host Spain, 13 gold medals, previous 1 gold medals, increase by 1200%;
26th Olympics, host USA, 44 gold medals, previous 37 gold medals, increase by 19%;
27th Olympics, host Australia 16 gold medals, previous 9 gold medals, increase by 78%;
28th Olympics, host Greece, 6 gold medals, previous 4 gold medals, increase by 50%;
29th Olympics, host China, ? gold medals, previous 32 gold medals, increase by ?.
(source: people.com.cn,bbs forum)

Based on the above comparative analysis, one can safely predict that China will be the first in number of gold medals in 2008 29th Beijing Olympics. China will win about 40 gold medals or even more.

Caution: Please do not use the above information to bet.

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Sarkozy has been put in a defensive position vis-a-vis China as France and the French leader have been perceived by the Chinese people as leading an effort to sabotage the Beijing Olympics Games. The French attempt to humiliate China on ground of human rights is even more unacceptable following a big commercial deal reached during Sarkozy's first state visit in Beijing at end of last year. He is seen by Chinese as a unscrupulous politician, one without any principle, one unreliable and untrustworthy. The diplomatic statements by other Western powers are irrelevant to Chinese perception of the French as the others' behaviors are within the Chinese imagination.

Immediately following the dialogue between Chinese central government representative and Dalai Lama's private representatives at beginning of this month, Dalai Lama side declared grave disatisfaction over the dialogue.

Secondly, in answering a media question relating to the invitation of foreign heads of state to attend the Opening Ceremony of Olympics, the spokeman of Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the foreign heads of state are invited by their national olympics committee to attend the Opening Ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games. The answer practically hints that nobody in China has invited Sarkozy to attend the Opening Ceremony of Olympics anyway. The Chinese government simply gives courtesy to him if he decides to show himself up to support his own team. It means he is not invited by Chinese government and therefore China does not care about his presence.

It was a tactical counterattack against Sarkozy who has suffered a serious damage of his reputation among the Chinese people. Nowadays, very few Chinese bloggers believe he is a mature politician, certainly not a good diplomat, but instead simply a womanizer, a rogue bureaucrat, etc.

Sarkozy apparently repented and saw his own mistake blown into disproportion due to his political miscalculation. He took several steps to correct his mistake: he took advantage of G8 to announce his presence at Opening Ceremony of the Games without any condition in name of France, but also under the cap of President of EU; he actively proposed the G8 club should be expanded to include a formal Chinese membership, at hearing "no" from the Japanese leader, Sarkozy was angry and left Japan for home before his pre-announced schedule, which has been perceived by China as an earnest desire to repair damaged relationship; he vehemently defended his decision at EU parliament that boycott of the Games was not something a state leader should contemplate, that no country can boycott 1.3 billion people.

After all, Sarkozy is a humain liable to commit mistakes.
Another lesson of this affair is the question of dividing line between international human rights and national sovereignty.

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2. How will be the environment in Beijing under the microscopic examination?

3. Will the ceremonial clothing for medal awards resemble the clothing of Han and Tang dynasties, the two most prosperous dynasties in Chinese history?

4. How the Olympics games will affect the traffic in a city with 17.5 million residents?

5. Who is going to have the honour to set fire to the torch for the games?

6. Who is going to sing the theme song for such a historical event?

7. Is it going to rain during the opening ceremony?

8. Who are going to get onto the last bus to watch the games?

9. How safe will be the Beijing Olympics？

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Here is how Mr. Hu sold his cat.

Before Mr. Hu became rich, he lived a very hard poor life. He sold almost everything to scratch for a living. Finally, he wanted to sell the last object in his house: a cat he raised with all the care. However, the cat would not give him too much money. Then he came up with a marvellous idea. Every time he went out of his door, he purposefully called out to his wife and told her to take very good care of the cat: "my darling, take every care of our cat. Never allow anybody to touch it. Absolutely no stranger shall be allowed to see it. You really take this into your heart." As time went by, his neighbours all believed that his cat was something very precious.

Soon a very rich man searched and came to buy this cat. Mr. Hu firmly refused to sell. The more resolute he was, the more eager the rich man was to want to buy, offering higher and higher a price. Eventually, the rich man gave Mr. Hu 300,000 Yuan for the cat. In reality, the cat was just as normal as others.

Key message: the more you cover something up, the more it is conspicuous.

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An important distinction between this round of talks and previous ones is that this round has been held in Beijing ,the center of gravity in Chinese politics. Mr. Du Qinglin, the deputy chairman of China's Political Consultative Conference met the two representatives of Dalai Lama. This has been the highest level of talks between the two parties since 2002.

The two sides still have major differences of views. However, the talks have been described as candid and relaxed in atmosphere.

The official has stated that the following important progress has been achieved this time during the talks: Mr. Du has raised the demand of "four points of not support" on behalf of the Chinese central government for the Dalai Lama side, i.e. if Dalai Lama sincerely wishes to make a useful contribution to the Chinese state, the nation and Tibetan people during his lifetime, he should publicly and clearly commit with action that he does not support actions of disturbances and sabotage of Beijing Olympics, does not support planning and flaming criminal violent activities, does not support and effectively constrain violent and terrorist activities by the Tibetan Youth Congress, does not support any claim and activity pursuing "Tibetan independence" or splitting the motherland. The two representatives of Dalai Lama stated during the talks that this is a new spirit of the Central government and expressed to accept the demand from the Central government. The official said elaboration of the demand and the acceptance by Dalai Lama's side of the demand is an important progress achieved so far.

The two sides have agreed to meet again in October 2008.

However, it has been reported by Washington Post that the Tibetans in exile are disappointed with the talks. "We had hoped that the Chinese leadership would reciprocate our efforts by taking tangible steps during this round. On the contrary, due to their excessive concern about legitimacy, the Chinese side even failed to agree to our proposal of issuing a joint statement with the aim of committing both parties to the dialogue process," the envoys, Lodi Gyaltsen Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen, said in a statement issued in Dharmsala.

Author comments:
1. There are indications that the current stage is set for the two sides to gauge each other's sincerity to resolve the issue. If the Dalai Lama side would honour its commitment to meet the Chinese central government demand, the latter will likely take further steps to move ahead with real substantial talks. If not, the next few months will be an opportunity lost.
2. On the one hand, Dalai Lama claims not to seek Tibet independence but real autonomy, which means he has to rebuild confidence and trust with the Chinese central leadership to achieve his aim. On the other hand,however, Dalai Lama still tries to act like a sovereign "king of Tibet" and relies on the Western powers to impose his views on his boss. In real life, he has nothing but some religious influence and some political utility for the West to exert pressure on China.
3. Any belief that external pressure on Chinese central government to give in to unrealist demands of Tibetans in exile before Beijing Olympics is illusory. Western pressure can backfire as it is seen as interference in China's internal affairs.

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Mr. Wang, the calligrapher, accepted the boatman's suggestion and found his way to the home of Daoist master. The latter quickly knew who was the visitor. He knew Mr. Wang was the famous calligrapher. He was secretly overjoyed to learn about the intent of his visitor. Concealing his joy, the Daoist master said: "I am sorry to tell you that my ducks are not for sale. If you really want them, I would appreciate if you cuold copy the Book of Morals (an ancient Chinese classic)to exchange for them." Mr. Wang was happy to consent to this deal.

Mr. Wang eagerly started to write with his brush word by word of the book on return at home. Several days later, his writing of the book was finished. He was delighted to get the ducks for exchange with this artistic work, now one of the most cherished masterpieces of calligraphy in Chinese history.

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In ancient times, before the unification of the Chinese continent into one political entity,a merchant trading swords and shields was trying very hard to sell his stuff on the street. He took up a shield and shouted:"come and buy this shield, folks, my shield is the hardest of all shield. No sword in the world would be sharp enough to possibly cut through it." Then he took up a sword and shouted: "come and buy this sword, folks, my sword is the sharpest of all swords. No shield in the world would be hard enough to defend against it. The sword can cut through all shields."

The on-lookers felt his explainations very funny. One of them went up and asked: "Yes sir,what would happen if I use your sword to attack your shield?" The merchant felt embarassed and left the market immediately.

Since then, the Chinese have used the phrase to refer to contradictory situations.

Note from Lao: If you like the story, please leave a comment.

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Legend goes that during the Spring and Autumn period ( 722 BC to 481 BC)in ancient China, a beauty named Xishi lived in the kingdom of Yue. She is known to be one of the most known Chinese beauties in history. However she decorated herself, she looked purely beautiful and pretty in every and any movement and gesture. Xishi suffered from an illness though, i.e. she had regular stockache. Every time she felt sick, she would put her hands on her stomach and she would nervously frown. Her posture in such an illness looked just as attractive in the eyes of others.

Among Xishi's neighbours was a girl named Dongshi, an ugly girl indeed. As she saw Xishi's beauty in such an illness, Dongshi tried to imitate her. Although Dongshi was not ill, she also put her hands on her stomach and she would also nervously frown. She believed she would look also beautiful, pretty and attractive. However, in the eyes of all others, Dongshi looked even uglier.

Moral: Each of us has our own merits and individual characters, we can not blindly imitate others.

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The real dragon in heaven was pleased at the bottom of his heart to hear about Mr She and was eager to pay a personal visit of him.

One day, the real dragon came to Mr. She's house, with his head extending through the window to take a look inside, with his tails spreading inside the guest room. At sight of the real dragon, however, Mr. She was almost frightened to death. He turned and ran away immediately, his soul almost lost, his face pale and his body shaking.

Mr. She's behaviours showed that he did not love the real dragon, but instead only objects resembling the real dragon but not the real thing itself.

In actual life, there are people who can offer oral support, express oral love towards something. However, when such a thing really happens or comes, they will be frightened.

Source: Chinese ancient book titiled "Xin Xu Zashi 5" (New catalogues, Story misallenous No. 5)

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Just before the Sichuan Earthquake, Chinese president Hu Jintao paid a state visit to Japan called the "warm spring" visit which warmed up the bilateral relationship. During the large scale rescue efforts during the earthquake, the Chinese government gave green light to accept Japanese rescue team into the earthquake striken area in Sichuan. The Chinese blogsphere was full of statements expressing appreciation of the Japanese efforts. It is thus no surprise that the two sides have seized the opportunity to improve their relations further and addressed a major issue of conflict, i.e. dispute over East China Sea and agreed to jointly develop the sea resources.

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What are the prospects of the new dialogue?
Commentators have paid attention to the fact that Beijing did not give details of the modalities of new contacts. They have also observed the continued verbal criticisms of Chinese media against the "Dalai Lama clique" interpreted as Chinese tactics either to level ground for real talks or to soften negotiation position of Dalai Lama if there were to be an official negotiation. For Beijing, it is only contact or consultation, not official talks or negotiation because Dalai Lama has to act to demonstrate his sincerity: declare that Tibet is integral part of China, Taiwan is integral part of China; stop instigating violence; stop sabotaging Beijing Olympic Games. The three conditions will help to pave the way for formal talks or negotiation.

That is to say, Dalai Lama has appealed to Western capitals that he is pursuing a middle way, he is not seeking independence. "The whole world knows that Dalai Lama is not seeking independence but real autonomy for Tibet". However, Beijing has to draw a conclusion whether Dalai Lama has really changed heart or playing tactics. Chinese leaders are making their own judgment by not only listening to what he says, but also watching what he does.

The real problem for Beijing is the lack of trust for Dalai Lama's words. In the past few years, Dalai Lama has been highly successful in his diplomacy to move western public opinion in his favor. Politically, he has sold his case to western governments and the public as real believer in dialogue, not violence to solve the Tibet issue,Dalai Lama as a solution to help preserve Tibetan boudhist religion and Tibetan culture, a pragmatist in pursuing real autonomy in Tibet within the framework of PRC constitution, not a seeker for Tibetan independence. The huge support for his cause from western politicians and public opinion has been made increasingly evident following the recent incident in Tibet and surrounding regions populated by Tibetans.

However, this can prove to be a double edged sword. On the one hand, the Dalai Lama now enjoys a higher international profile and has managed to be widely heard and appreciated, even adored by many. On the other hand, his real objective to return to Tibet and govern it can become even more distant than before. He has succeeded in pursuading western capitals to exert pressure on Beijing to talk to him. However, such pressure can be counter productive if Beijing interprete this as an effort to internationalize the Tibet issue, or close ties between Dalai Lama with Western capitals can be seen as a proof that he has been plotting something new for Tibet independence. His declaration for real autonomy is interpreted by Beijing as false autonomy but real independence. Due to historical experiences, Beijing is particularly sensitive to sovereignty issues. Tibet is clearly one of these sovereignty issues. Therefore, Beijing will reject anything perceived to be an external interference in its internal affairs. Measures such as US parliament resolution on Tibet, EU parliament resolution on Tibet, Paris Council decision to grant Dalai Lama as the city's honorary citizen can only make Beijing angry.

Unless Dalai Lama sells his case to Beijing, chances for him to succeed in establishing a real autonomy in his terms are rather slim and distant. One can not sell something to a difficult client by making him angry. Negotiation is based on the willingness of participating parties to reach an executable agreement through compromises. Without sufficient mutual trust as a basis, formal negotiation will not even be initiated. For example, Beijing has not recognized the past dialogue as talks, only as contacts.

Beijing's test for Dalai Lama
In the last month or so, Dalai Lama has successfully kicked the ball to Beijing. The latter has handled the ball clumsily to the point that Beijing's policies in Tibet have not been appreciated as it wishes. However, Chinese public opinion has been quickly mobilized to solidify Chinese official position. Chinese cheer teams composed of young Chinese students world wide are enthusiatically supporting their government. One can not say such activities are manipulated by Chinese government.This has happened as the public see the Olympic Games as a proof of modernization of Chinese nation and thus a pride of Chinese people. The linkage of human rights or a hint to boycott the opening ceremony of the Games in its name has aroused Chinese public anger, especially among the young who see this as a deliberate attempt to humiliate the nation using human rights as an excuse.

Following the March 14 incident, Western capitals have all called or urged Beijing to have dialogue with Dalai Lama to resolve the Tibet issue. The German chancellor has refused to attend the opening ceremony as a protest to Beijing's handling of the incident while the French president has linked his presence to Beijing's willingness to carry out dialogue with Dalai Lama.

By agreeing to reopen dialogue or have new contacts with the private representatives of Dalai Lama is no surprise because this is nothing new. Beijing's decision itself indicates its understanding of the major role of Dalai Lama in helping to maintain political stability in China's western region, particularly Tibet. It defuses the international pressure due to the Tibet issue, apparently the only most outstanding issue 100 days before the event of Olympic Games.

Beijing has agreed to take up dialogue with the Dalai Lama without conditions. However, such a dialogue has only been described by Beijing as another contact, not formal talks or negotiation. Beijing has clearly laid out three conditions as listed in the beginning of this article to be available in order to agree to have official talks or negotiations to settle the Tibet issue with Dalai Lama.

First, the Tibetan religious leader has openly stated many times that he is not seeking independence, but real autonomy in Tibet. In public eyes, he has met the first condition. However, Beijing expects him to repeat the following: Tibet is an integral part of China, Taiwan is an integral part of China. This is important bacause this will be put on official record to hold him accountable in the future.

Second, he has openly called Tibetans to stop violence. He has been preaching peace and dialogue for decades, which was a major reason for him to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The recent savage violence committed by some Tibetan protestors in Lhasa and elsewhere are not supporting Dalai Lama's own words. Then it is up to Beijing to assess how much influence Dalai Lama still has upon his followers. After all, he is still head of the Tibetan exile government, even though unrecognized. He stated that he could not hold Tibetan radical groups from committing violence. Is this true? Tibetan Youth Congress, the organization which has been accused by Beijing as the leading entity masterminding the recent and past violences but formally described by Dalai Lama as a Tibetan exile NGO, has been reportedly become a backbone of the Tibetan exile government. Or is this only a tactic that he is preaching dialogue with Beijing while his hardline followers pursue violence to create pressure on Beijing in order to have more leverage in future negotiations.

Based on the above analysis, Beijing would be willing to engage in formal talks or negotiation with Dalai Lama when it concludes that he is sincere in his statement that he is not able to prevent his followers from radical actions. It would be naive to believe that he is able to prevent all types of violence by all Tibetans. However, Beijing expects him to act more in a credible manner in preventing violence by his followers, to demonstrate his leadership among his believers.

Thirdly, Dalai Lama has stated that he supports Beijing Olympics and publicly opposes boycott. Since Beijing Olympic Game is seen as a supreme important event for the Chinese nation, real efforts by Dalai Lama in the next few months leading up to the Games to use his influence to prevent or dramatically reduce protests by Tibetan groups will be registered in his credit. Beijing will lose credibility in public opinion if it refuses to change contact into what it calls negotiation with him.

After his Chinese host told him of its willingness to reopen contacts with Dalai Lama, José Manuel Barroso, President of EU Commission, has been lately reported to state that Dalai Lama has stated he was not seeking independence but only real autonomy and preserving Tibetan religious and cultural heritage. Then there is a real hope for the Tibetan issue to be resolved through dialogues.

However, we can conclude from the above that real hope will only be possible if Dalai Lama passes the test from Beijing. Least of all, he has to demonstrate his willingness to become a qualified citizen of PRC besides beijing a Tibetan religious leader.

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